A country-specific evaluation on the feasibility of autonomous vehicles
Tatiana Novaes Theoto, Paulo Carlos Kaminski
Abstract
this article aims to map and analyse country-specific factors, which enable autonomous mobility. In order to do so, a case study evaluation of the degree of preparation of nine selected countries for the advent of autonomous vehicles was conducted: Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, Japan, Singapore, South Africa, United Arab Emirates and the United States of America. Adoption models of this new technology are discussed, as well as its potential limitations. Finally, best practices and public policy recommendations are identified. The method includes a systematic review of literature, elaboration of evaluation criteria based on implementation assumptions, and a multi-criteria decision process to rank the countries.
Keywords
References
ABUELSAMID, S.; ALEXANDER, D.; JERRAM, L. Navigant research leaderboard report: automated driving. Chicago: Navigant, 2017.
ACCENTURE. Autonomous driving – are OEMs losing the driver seat? Dublin: Accenture, 2015.
ANDERSON, J. M. et al. Autonomous vehicle technology: a guide for policymakers. Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, 2014.
BAGLOEE, S. A. et al. Autonomous vehicles: challenges, opportunities, and future implications for transportation policies. Journal of Modern Transportation, v. 24, n. 4, p. 284-303, 2016.
BLOOMBERG. Initiatives on cites and autonomous vehicles. 2018. Available from: <https://avsincities.bloomberg.org/>. Access in: 30 Mar. 2018.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY – CIA. The world factbook. 2018. Available from: <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/>. Access in: 10 Apr. 2018.
CLAMANN, M.; AUBERT, M.; CUMMINGS, M. L. Evaluation of vehicle-to-pedestrian communication displays for autonomous vehicles. In Proceedings of the 96th Annual Transportation Research Board Meeting, Washington, DC, 2017.
COMET LABS. 263 self-driving car startups to watch. 2018. Available from: <https://blog.cometlabs.io/263-self-drivingcar-startups-to-watch-8a9976dc62b0>. Access in: 30 Mar. 2018.
DALIA RESEARCH. How the world moves. 2017. Available from: <http://mobility.daliaresearch.com/dashboard>. Access in: 27 May 2018.
DELOITTE, A. Reality check on advanced vehicle technologies. 2017. Available from: <https://www2.deloitte. com/content/dam/Deloitte/at/Documents/automotive/deloitte-global-automotive-consumer-study-2018.pdf>. Access in: 27 May 2017.
DOLLARS AND SENSE. NG, N. Do Electric. Vehicles make financial sense in Singapore? 2017. Available from: <https://dollarsandsense.sg/evs-make-financial-sense-singaporeheres-electric-hybridpetrol-cars-compare/>. Access in: 27 May 2018.
ENG, H. Embracing the future of land transportation: valuing flexibility in design and technology options for autonomous vehicle developments in Singapore. Massachusetts: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017.
FAGNANT, D. J.; KOCKELMAN, K. Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations. USA: Elsevier: 2015.
FUJIMOTO, T. The long tail of the auto industry life cycle. Journal of Product Innovation Management, v. 31, n. 1, p. 8-16, 2014.
IBUSUKI, U.; KOBAYASHI, H.; KAMINSKI, P. C. Localisation of product development based on competitive advantage of location and government policies: a case study of car makers in Brazil. International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, v. 12, n. 2, p. 172-196, 2012.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – IEA. Global EV Outlook 2017. 2017a. Available from: <https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/globalEVOutlook2017.pdf>. Access in: 27 May 2018.
INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS UNION – ITU. Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI). 2017b. Available from: <https://www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-d/opb/str/D-STRGCI.01-2017-PDF-E.pdf>. Access in: 27 May 2018.
KALRA, N.; PADDOCK, S. M. Driving to safety: how many miles of driving would it take to demonstrate autonomous vehicle reliability? Transportation Research Part A, Policy and Practice, v. 94, p. 182-193, 2016.
KLYNVELD PEAT MARWICK GOERDELER – KPMG. Self-driving cars: the next revolution. Amsterdam: KPMG, 2012.
KLYNVELD PEAT MARWICK GOERDELER – KPMG. Change readiness index. Amsterdam: CRI, 2017.
KLYNVELD PEAT MARWICK GOERDELER – KPMG. Autonomous vehicles readiness index. Amsterdam: AVRI, 2018.
KNIGHT, W. What Uber’s fatal accident could mean for the autonomous-car industry. 2018. Available from: <https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610574/what-ubers-fatalaccident-could-mean-for-the-autonomous-car-industry/>. Access in: 10 Apr. 2018.
LAND TRANSPORT AUTHORITY – LTA. Annual vehicle statistics 2017. 2017. Available from: <https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltagov/en/who_we_are/statistics_and_ publications/statistics.html> link. Access in: 27 May 2018.
LITMAN, T. Autonomous vehicle implementation predictions: implications for transport planning. Victoria: Victoria Transport Policy Institute, 2018.
LUSTGARTEN, P.; LE VINE, S. Public priorities and consumer preferences for selected attributes of automated vehicles. Journal of Modern Transportation, v. 26, n. 1, p. 72-79, 2018.
N AT I O N A L H I G H WAY T R A F F I C S A F E T Y ADMINISTRATION – NHTSA. Automated driving systems 2.0: a vision for safety. Washington: NHTSA, 2017.
OHNEMUS, M.; PERL, A. Shared autonomous vehicles: catalyst of new mobility for the last mile? Built Environment, v. 42, n. 4, p. 589-602, 2016.
PARDI, T.; CALABRESE, G. C. Editorial. International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, v. 18, n. 2, p. 75-80, 2018.
PATENT INSIGHT PRO. Autonomous car-control mechanism. 2016. Available from: <http://www.patentinsightpro.com/techreports/0416/Autonomous%20Car-Control%20 Mechanism.pdf>. Access in: 30 May 2018.
PTOLEMUS. Usage-based insurance supplier ranking 2016. 2016. Available from: <https://www.ptolemus.com/ubisupplier-rankings-2016/>. Access in: 27 May 2018.
RANDALL, T. Elon musk was wrong about self-driving Teslas. 2018. Available from: <https://www.bloomberg.com/ news/articles/2017-10-25/can-tesla-make-up-for-autopilot-slost-year>. Access in: 10 Apr. 2018. SAATY, T. L. The analytic hierarchy process. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1980.
SCHOETTLE, B.; SIVAK, M. Public opinion about selfdriving vehicles in China, India, Japan, the U.S., the U.K., and Australia. Michigan: University of Michigan, 2014.
THE AUTOMATED DRIVING COMMUNITY. 2025 AD. 7 universities that are pushing the boundaries of autonomous driving. 2017. Available from: <https://www.2025ad.com/latest/top-universities-for-autonomousdriving/>. Access in: 10 Apr. 2017.
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP – BCGa. Revolution in the driver’s seat. Boston: BCGb, 2015a.
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP – BCGb. Revolution versus regulation. Boston: BCGb, 2015b.
TRIANTAPHYLLOU, E. Multi-criteria decision making methods. In TRIANTAPHYLLOU, E. Multi-criteria decision making methods: a comparative study. Boston: Springer, 2000. p. 5-21.
UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COUNCIL. Vienna convention on road traffic. Geneva: United Nations Economic and Social Council, 2017.
VANDERBILT, T. Autonomous cars through ages. 2018. Available from: <https://www.wired.com/2012/02/autonomous-vehicle-history/>. Access in: 30 Mar. 2018.
VISION SYSTEMS INTELLIGENCE. The building blocks of autonomy. 2016. Available from: <https://ww1.prweb.com/prfiles/2016/06/08/13472308/Source_Vision_Systems_ Intelligence_Infographic.JPG>. Access in: 30 Mar. 2016.
WORLD BANK. The world bank in China. 2018. Available from: <http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview>. Access in: 27 May 2018.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM – WEF. Self-driving vehicles in an urban context. 2015. Available from: <http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Press%20release.pdf>. Access in: 27 May 2015.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM – WEF. 2017-2018 global competitiveness index. 2018. Available from: <https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-competitivenessreport-2017-2018>. Access in: 30 Mar. 2018.
Facebook
Google+
Twitter
LinkedIn
Mendeley
StumbleUpon
CiteULike
Reddit
Email